加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院的Felipe Caro 及 Christopher Tang在本周的《财富》杂志上解释了如何可以利用现有的自贸协定。
“To satisfy certain country¬-of-¬origin conditions stipulated in TPP, China can manage the supply chain operations of cotton shirts by importing cotton from Pakistan (via its existing free trade agreement with China) and conduct ‘upstream’ operations, such as fabric design, knitting and dyeing at home.
“Then China can ship the fabric to Vietnam (via an existing free trade agreement with China). At the same time, Japan can ship the buttons to Vietnam (via the TPP). Vietnam can perform ‘downstream’ operations (sewing) and then ship the finished shirts via TPP agreement to Australia, Japan and the United States, cutting off the 5%, 10.9% and 16.5% import duties that would have applied if China had dealt directly with these countries.”
中国与TPP
“要满足TPP设定的原产国条款，中国可以这样控制棉制衬衫的供应链，先由巴基斯坦（已与中国签订了自贸协定）进口棉花，然后在国内进行“上游”加工、如面料设计、编织、染整。
然后再将织物运送到越南（已与中国签订了自贸协定），同时日本将钮扣运送到越南（通过TPP协议）。越南再进行“下游”加工（缝制），最后将成品衬衫通过TPP协议发送到澳大利亚、日本和美国，这样中国就省下了与这些国家直接贸易需要被分别征收的5%、10.9%和16.5%进口关税。
And China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.
Beijing is a card-carrying member of the World Trade Organization, has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is the driving force behind the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which could potentially become a rival to theWorld Bank and Asia Development Bank once it gets going.
中国很显然并不需要TPP去增强其在全球业已规模庞大的影响力。
北京是世界贸易组织的正式成员、在联合国的安理会上拥有永久席位，是亚洲基础设施建设银行(AIIB)的主力，AIIB一旦启动以后将是世界银行和亚洲开发银行的潜在对手。
The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.
China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020, with outbound foreign direct investment already topping $100 billion a year. In some countries, China’s investment is actually bigger than the loans they get from theInternational Monetary Fund, and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.
TPP
中国领导的亚洲基础设施建设银行拥有数十个国家的支持，着眼于为区域基础设施提供融资，将会为北京赢得其邻国的支持。
按照目前的发展速度，到2020年北京将会成为全球最大的海外投资者。其每年输出的对外直接投资已经达到了1000亿美元。对某些国家，中国的投资超过了国际货币基金组织，这些投资让北京拥有了巨大的经济和政治影响力。
On top of that China is busy negotiating its own free-trade pact with 15 countries in the Asia Pacific region and is expected to become the world’s largest economy in the next decade.
在这基础上，中国目前在加紧与15个亚太国家协商中国版的自贸协定，预计将于下个十年里成为世界上最大的经济体。
“That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains,” Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics and editor of China Economic Quarterly, told Foreign Policy.
Missing out on a TPP membership card won’t change that.
“优势是建立在中国的庞大规模、持续的增长之上，尽管有所放缓但仍超过亚洲大多数国家的速度，以及其位于全球供应链的核心之上"
